Source: Raleigh Report – May 2026

“…We must grapple with the public effects of corruption on conflict. By corruption, I mean the practices and perception of it, in small and large ways, across politics, the economy, and society. The daily corruptions that make people think that they are bearing the costs for decisions and benefits made and enjoyed by a small group, or that there are no consequences for those who can wield their power. And by conflict, I mean the violence that surrounds us here — not in far-off places. Massive changes in violence are coming, and these will require support for security and state violence, recruitment into security services, commitment to short and long-term political goals, and shared agreement about which conflict is valid and which isn’t.

The public’s attitude and position on violence and conflict is hardly the primary consequence of corruption — but it is one outcome, and since you are here to think about conflict, join in.

My central thesis is this: People will accept conflict and its costs when they believe their sacrifice matters — when they can see that their support is essential, and that the benefits, now or in the future, are real. They accept it when they know national security is a shared goal worthy of a person’s effort and support. But when citizens can no longer connect the decisions of their leaders to any tangible benefit for their country, and the costs keep rising, that resolve collapses. Faith in political leadership erodes. And when people believe their society or political system is in desperate need of change — yet nothing changes — apathy and anger grow, rather than action. That is when the social fabric begins to fray.

The corruptions that people are forced to live with have now stripped away their agency. And people who have lost their agency go looking for it. Extreme politics offers that promise. But extreme politics never restores cooperation; it replaces it with power plays — internal and external — and, increasingly, with violence.

My broader worry is that something fundamental has shifted in how our societies function, and that shift has left us dangerously unprepared for what is coming. As global power realigns, our living standards will decline, and we will discover that our security institutions cannot restore order where it breaks down. The quality of our political ideas — and those who represent them and us — will continue to deteriorate. No one is coming to fix it. Those who said they would have failed, and will fail again…”