Is The World Ready For A Global Energy Catastrophe And A Global Food Catastrophe At The Same Time?

“…We have reached an unprecedented moment in human history. If this war with Iran continues for an extended period of time, we will be facing the greatest energy disruption in human history and the greatest food production disruption in human history simultaneously. Many were hoping that Iran would agree to the Trump administration’s proposal for a 30 day ceasefire, but it was obvious that was never going to happen. The Iranians have completely rejected Trump’s 15 point plan, and they are demanding that the U.S. must agree to permanent Iranian sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz before any negotiations even begin. Needless to say, the U.S. will never agree to that, and so the war will rage on.

(…)

Iran is literally trying to paralyze the entire global economy in order to gain as much leverage as possible.

One energy industry economist is openly admitting that we have never “seen anything like this”…

“We’ve not seen anything like this — there’s been no disruption of this scale in the past,” Gareth Ramsay, chief economist at oil and gas giant BP, told the conference. “It’s every oil analyst’s study piece or worst nightmare — one that we never thought would happen.”

He is right.

This is unprecedented…”

~ Full article…

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Warning From the Heartland: Historic Drought And Unexpected Fertilizer Shortages Could Mean Massive Crop Losses

The Economic Damage Caused By This War Will Stretch To The End Of The Decade

“…The CEO of Dow is warning that a global supply crisis is hitting a very wide range of industries, and he is projecting that it could take 250 to 275 days to unwind this mess once the Strait of Hormuz is opened again…

Petrochemical price spikes and shortages from the Iran war likely will cause inflationary effects at least through the end of the year on construction materials, consumer goods, the automative and aerospace industries, and much more, the CEO of chemical manufacturing giant Dow said.

While much of the global supply-shock focus is on oil, natural gas, fertilizers, and even helium for semiconductors, almost 20% of global petrochemical capacity is blocked from the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz chokepoint by Iran, said Dow chair and CEO Jim Fitterling.

“The die is being cast for the rest of the year for what’s going to happen in the markets,” Fitterling said at the CERAWeek by S&P Global conference in Houston. “It’s like the unwind we saw on supply chains during COVID.

“You could be in the 250- to 275-day [range]. This is not going to be an instantaneous rewind.”

Of course, all of the economic infrastructure that has been destroyed on both sides will not be rebuilt in 250 to 275 days.

Sadly, the truth is that it will take years to fully rebuild all of that infrastructure, even if the war ended immediately.

So ultimately I agree with those who are warning that the economic impact of this war “will stretch until the end of the decade”…”

~ Full article…

‘40-50% Stock Market Crash Coming’: This Is Your Last Exit — Edward Dowd & Michelle Makori

Michelle Makori, President & Editor-in-Chief, Miles Franklin Media, interviews Edward Dowd, Founder of Phinance Technologies.

Markets may be watching the wrong risk. While headlines focus on the Iran war and geopolitics, Edward Dowd warns the real breakdown is already underway beneath the surface of the U.S. economy. From a weakening housing market to a bursting AI bubble and a frozen private credit system, Dowd argues that the conditions for a major downturn were already in place – before the war even began.

He explains why any relief rally driven by geopolitical optimism could be a selling opportunity, why a 40-50% market crash remains on the table, and how structural risks in housing, credit, and global growth are converging. Dowd also shares his outlook on China’s slowing economy, the Federal Reserve’s limited options, and why he believes gold remains in a long-term bull market – even after recent volatility.

In this episode of The Real Story with Michelle Makori:

Why the real economic breakdown has already started
Housing market weakness and why prices may need to fall
The AI bubble and signs it may already be cracking
Private credit stress and why it’s the “canary in the coal mine”
Why a relief rally could be the last chance to exit
Dowd’s outlook for a 40–50% market correction
China’s economic slowdown and global implications
Gold’s long-term trajectory and why it could reach $10,000

~ Video...

“A centuries-old network of secret codes and shadowy brokers continues to outpace financial systems controlled by the state”

Banking beyond the law

“…There are, in fact, entirely separate payment networks that operate outside the confines of state-regulated information assembly lines. The Chinese refer to them as feiqian (‘flying money’). Arabic speakers prefer the term hawala, whereas the Indian diaspora operates through a practice called hundi. In English, we have developed an ominous phrase to capture these various informal networks: underground banking.

Such a phrase may evoke images of drug dealers, money launderers and corrupted officials. And, indeed, states have long been concerned about the potential utilisation of these networks for crime and terrorist financing. But numerous scholars have pushed back against this securitised narrative. The political scientist Marieke de Goede, for instance, observes that focusing on criminality in underground banking ignores the tremendous volume of illicit finance passing through the aboveground system. What’s more, the fundamental elements of underground networks – trust, speed, global reach – are precisely what ‘modern’ financial institutions aspire to.

The truth is that there is nothing inherently suspect about underground banking. It is simply another method of transferring money. So why are they controversial? The real answer is not so much about financial crime. It is, instead, about power. Underground banks represent a challenge to states’ control of the global financial system, one that undermines their capacity to surveil our each and every transaction. As a result, those states seek to eliminate informal networks by subjecting them to regulation.

(…)

But despite their best efforts, states have not been able to eliminate the informal networks of underground banking. Hundreds of billions of dollars are floating through these channels as you read this article. It may, in fact, be just beneath your feet. The mini-mart where you get your falafel. The soap importer by your favourite brunch spot. Your cousin’s friend who works at the local currency exchange. To paraphrase Scott, it is a parallel universe that remains defiantly illegible to state control. And it is winning…”

~ Full article…

The AI bubble dwarfing all others

The Trillion-Dollar Oops

“…A whole year back, back all the way to December, the big five hyperscalers were spending $405 billion a year and I thought that number was already insane. I said it was accelerating. I said No1 knows what anything costs anymore. That these estimates kept getting revised upward so fast that by the time you finished reading the sentence, someone would have revised it again.

(…)

Three months ago I wrote that someone was going to pay for this. That either it would be shareholders or the rest of us. I laid out the circular financing, the Enron comparisons, the 19-year leases for 1-year-obsolete hardware, the 95% failure rate, the grid that can’t cope, the CEOs who admit it’s a bubble while pouring money into it.

Every single number got worse since then.

I called my last article “The trillion-dollar oops”.

I don’t think “trillion” cuts it anymore. We’ve left a trillion behind. We’re in territory where the numbers are so large they’ve stopped being numbers and started being theology.

You don’t analyse them anymore. You believe in them, or you don’t…”

~ Full article…

Hold on to Your Hardware

“…In practice, this means that phones, ultrabooks, and embedded devices are becoming more expensive overnight, not because of new features, but because the invisible silicon inside them has quietly become a contested resource in a world that no longer builds hardware primarily for consumers.

Everything is sold out

In late January 2026, the Western Digital CEO confirmed during an earnings call that the company’s entire HDD production capacity for calendar year 2026 is already sold out. Let that sink in for a moment. Q1 hasn’t even ended and a major hard drive manufacturer has zero remaining capacity for the year. Firm purchase orders are in place with its top customers, and long-term agreements already extend into 2027 and 2028. Consumer revenue now accounts for just 5% of Western Digital’s total sales, while cloud and enterprise clients make up 89%. The company has, for all practical purposes, stopped being a consumer storage company.

And Western Digital is not alone. Kioxia, one of the world’s largest NAND flash manufacturers, admitted that its entire 2026 production volume is already in a “sold out” state, with the company expecting tight supply to persist through at least 2027 and long-term customers facing 30% or higher year-on-year price increases. Adding to this, the Silicon Motion CEO put it bluntly during a recent earnings call:

“We’re facing what has never happened before: HDD, DRAM, HBM, NAND… all in severe shortage in 2026.”

In addition, the Phison CEO has gone even further, warning that the NAND shortage could persist until 2030, and that it risks the “destruction” of entire segments of the consumer electronics industry. He also noted that factories are now demanding prepayment for capacity three years in advance, an unprecedented practice that effectively locks out smaller players…”

~ Full article…

Eugenics and the Modern Synthesis, Part II

“…How, though, to distinguish the eugenically fit from the unfit? As a “rough-and-ready” method, Huxley liked the idea of using salaries: the higher the salary, the fitter the person. That was simple enough, but it led to a eugenic conundrum. Wealthy people had fewer children on average than poor people. Professionals and landowners had fewer children than unskilled laborers. You might think it would have occurred to Huxley that in strictly Darwinian terms, the laborers’ higher reproductive rate meant they were the more fit, since for Darwin “fitness” simply meant reproductive success. But apparently not. Instead, he lamented that those with a relatively “poor physique and low mental type” were reproducing like crazy while those whose spots at Oxford had come to them with their birth certificates were having maybe just two children. This would lead to “a progressive deterioration of the average of the national stock.”

Huxley offered an illustration that was Mendelian in its mathematical elegance: suppose that for every 100 laborers, three were outstanding and seven defective, while for every 100 professionals, seven were outstanding and three defective. Then suppose that the professional class remains about the same size while the laboring class doubles every two generations. In the original generation, outstanding and defective people each make up five percent of the overall population; but after two generations, the percentages would be 3.8 and 6.2, and after five, they would be three and 6.8, and so on. You can see where this is going. Moreover, this was assuming “no migrations between class and class occurred, which would make things worse.”

The same problem preoccupied Ronald Fisher, an English mathematician and geneticist whose work was foundational to the modern synthesis. Fisher asserted (on no evidence) that inheritance was strictly “particulate”; that mutations were effectively random, having no shaping forces or causes; and that biologists should just face the fact that natural selection was the only mechanism directing evolution. Yet natural selection didn’t seem to be doing a great job of it. Fisher, too, worried about poor people having more children than rich people, which he called the “inverted birth-rate.” He was a devout Anglican, but he doesn’t seem to have trusted his God to cope with the situation either. Convinced that social classes were “genetically differentiated,” he fretted that the current trend was leading to a degradation of the human race.

This was no idle speculation; Fisher meant to do something about it. During his career, he served as the inaugural chairman of the University of Cambridge Eugenics Society, held the position of Galton Professor of Eugenics and head of the Department of Eugenics at University College London, and edited the journal Annals of Eugenics. He was a man of action. As a solution to the inverted birth-rate problem, for instance, Fisher proposed that the state make family allowances proportional to salaries: the higher the salary, the higher the allowance. This would encourage the rich to breed more and the poor to breed less. Leonard Darwin, a son of Charles Darwin, had made a similar proposal, suggesting income tax rebates to families who had more children, since only wealthier professionals paid income taxes. But he had cautioned that it would be essential for state administrators to verify that no artisans or laborers had made it into the class paying income taxes and therefore receiving the rebates…”

~ Full article…

Part 1: Eugenics and the Modern Synthesis, Part I

“The real scandal of the Epstein saga is not that a billionaire cabal runs the world. It’s that there is a billionaire class. The moral of the Epstein files is that nobody should be that rich.”

The Epstein Class

“…Jeffrey Epstein checks every conspiracist box. The late sex trafficker was a Jewish financier linked to the Rothschilds, the Rockefellers, the Trilateral Commission, and the Council on Foreign Relations. His influence extended to the House of Saud, the House of Windsor, the Russian Federation, and Israel. He liked pizza. Renewed attention to the astonishing number of prominent men cultivated by Epstein has poured fuel on simmering conspiracy theories of shadowy child trafficking rings run by powerful elites. As Ana Marie Cox observed in the New Republic, “every new file drop brings at least a whisper of validation to QAnon’s core contentions.” Even some serious-minded observers are willing to entertain increasingly outlandish claims. Tara Palmeri, one of the most prominent journalists on the Epstein beat, even suggested that Epstein might have been growing mind-control plants in his garden to turn his victims into zombies.

As a result, in February former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton found herself fielding questions about Pizzagate and UFOs when she testified before Congress about her nonexistent relationship with Epstein. Beginning in the 2016 presidential election, peddlers of the Pizzagate conspiracy theory, which laid the groundwork for QAnon, held that Clinton and other high-ranking Democrats were trafficking children from the basement of a beloved family restaurant in Washington, D.C. that has no basement. Internet sleuths convinced themselves that references to pizza in campaign manager John Podesta’s leaked emails were a pedophile code. “I think that this is all very reasonable,” said Representative Lauren Boebert after asking Clinton whether any of the codewords from Pizzagate surfaced in the Epstein files. “I mean, I expected a lot of interesting questions today, but Pizzagate was not on my list,” the former secretary replied. “That’s okay. We’re asking all sorts of things here,” Boebert answered cheerfully. “You certainly are,” Clinton sighed. “You certainly are.”

The Epstein records released by the Department of Justice have exposed a world of unimaginable privilege and sparked a global backlash against what has come to be known as the Epstein Class. QAnon was a right-wing movement, but Epstein conspiracism has now gone fully bipartisan. Presented with a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to hold the powerful to account, we are teetering on the edge of lunacy. Yet the real scandal of the Epstein saga is not that a billionaire cabal runs the world. It’s that there is a billionaire class. The moral of the Epstein files is that nobody should be that rich…”

~ Full article…

The Iran-U.S.-UAE-Pakistan riddle

“…What really matters is the “follow the money” angle: Yousef al Otaiba reaffirmed the $1.4 trillion UAE investment commitment in the Empire of Chaos – which covers multiple deals in energy, AI infrastructure, semiconductors, and manufacturing.

The infernal escalation machine is in full effect. Tehran carefully studied every instance of the UAE’s direct involvement not only in the outbreak of the war but also the current escalation. Abu Dhabi not only hosts U.S. military bases; but also allowed the U.S. to use some of its own air bases to attack Iran, and helped hostile entities to develop their target database using the Emirates AI infrastructure.

(…)

Langley’s top asset in Pakistan is Army Chief Gen. Asim Munir – part of the regime change gang that deposed former PM Imran Khan and threw him in jail. Munir has Trump on speed dial.

They had recently spoken in detail about Iran – with Munir instrumentalizing the back channels between Tehran and the Witkoff-Kushner duo, everything enveloped in the subterfuge of “negotiations”.

Munir is rabidly anti-Shi’ite; nearly a Salafi-jihadi in his mind; and very close to Saudi Arabia – which wants Trump to go all out on Iran.

(…)

As it stands, a clear possibility is that the GCC may become instrumental in the international financial system implosion, as it will have to pull massive funds out of the U.S. market to be able to bet on their shaky survival.

China is watching all of the above with bated breath. Beijing has been more than aware that the fall of Assad severed the absolutely critical overland node connecting the New Silk Roads/BRI to the Eastern Mediterranean.

China was betting heavily on the trilateral railway linking Iran, Iraq and Syria, which would be a beauty in terms of bypassing imperial naval chokepoints. Iran controlling the Strait of Hormuz though should be the beginning of a geoeconomic counterpunch.

After all Iran has just institutionalized the petroyuan as the payment system at the Hormuz toll booth. As 80% of its oil revenue was already being settled in yuan through CIPS, the system now includes shipping fees, simultaneously bypassing the U.S. dollar, U.S. sanctions and SWIFT – and that in the most consequential chokepoint of the global economy…”

~ Full article…