“…Dan Alamariu, the chief geopolitical strategist at Alpine Macro, is warning that if this war with Iran persists we could see “peak war panic” in approximately 1 to 3 weeks…

Alamariu acknowledged there’s a growing chance that the war lasts longer than his two-month outlook, and the Strait of Hormuz would likely remain closed for the duration. That means Brent crude prices will stay above $100 a barrel and possibly even top $150. And yet, the market hasn’t reached maximum panic yet.

“Peak war panic is more likely to hit in the next 1 to 3 weeks,” he predicted. “The longer the conflict lasts, the more investors price in economic damage.”

Using oil prices as a gauge for market panics, crude has historically peaked four to eight weeks into similar conflicts, according to Alamariu. The Iran war has now entered its third week.

If the price of oil surpasses $150 a barrel and stays there for an extended period of time, it will cause widespread panic.

I have no doubt about that at all.

What investors would really like to see is an end to the war, but an end to the war is not even on the horizon at this stagε…”

~ Full article…

“…We have succumbed to the illusory belief that “the powers behind the curtain” can–and will–always save us from a market crash and “real recession.” What history teaches us is this can only happen in a very specific set of conditions which no longer apply: if oil costs plateau at a higher level, inflation becomes self-reinforcing, credit expansion leads to extremes of risk and productivity remains stagnant, then those behind the curtain will only make the situation worse by lowering interest rates and “running it hot.”

At that point, everyone predicting a continuation of the past 18 years will be reaping their reward for being wrong: a margin call in a bidless market. Predicting is hard, but it’s good to keep an open mind and avoid recency bias. If conditions change beneath the surface, the folks behind the curtain will be powerless to do anything but make it worse…”

~ Full article…

“…Energy insecurity has institutions, stockpiles, and doctrine.

Fertilizer insecurity does not.

No country appears to maintain a fertilizer reserve system remotely comparable in scale, doctrine, or strategic importance to the petroleum reserve architecture built after the oil shocks of the 1970s. Today’s policy response to the Hormuz crisis is not a nutrient reserve release. It is an improvised attempt to rebuild shipping and insurance capacity on the fly. This structural asymmetry, now exposed with violent clarity, may prove to be one of the most consequential oversights in the history of modern statecraft. The Strait of Hormuz, a 21-nautical-mile corridor of shallow water between Iran and Oman, does not merely carry twenty percent of the world’s oil. It carries a significant share of the molecular foundation underlying half the planet’s food supply. UNCTAD estimates that roughly one-third of global seaborne fertilizer trade passes through Hormuz. The Fertilizer Institute separately estimates that exporters exposed directly or indirectly to the conflict account for nearly 49 percent of global urea exports, nearly 30 percent of global ammonia exports, and nearly half of global sulfur trade. That combination makes Hormuz not merely an energy chokepoint, but one of the most concentrated nutrient chokepoints in the global food system. Since late February 2026, commercial traffic through that corridor has effectively collapsed. UNCTAD reports daily ship transits fell by approximately 97 percent. As of mid-March, neither belligerent has shown willingness to negotiate. Trump rejected allied efforts to launch ceasefire talks on March 14. Iran’s foreign minister stated on March 15: “We never asked for a ceasefire.” And the spring planting clock is ticking toward a deadline that no diplomatic breakthrough can extend, because seeds do not negotiate, soil chemistry does not pause for geopolitics, and the quadratic yield response curve of cereal crops does not bend to the will of men who have never planted a field.

This is the story of the Nitrogen Trap. It is not primarily a story about war, though war is its catalyst. It is not primarily a story about oil, though Brent crude closed above $100 per barrel on March 12. It is not primarily a story about commodity markets, though fertilizer equities have surged roughly forty percent in fourteen trading days. It is the story of a civilization that optimized every node of its food production system for cost efficiency while concentrating existential dependencies in chokepoints it cannot control, inputs it does not stockpile, and insurance markets it does not regulate. The answer, as we are about to discover, is that these systems are not merely repricing. They are fracturing. And the fractures propagate through at least fourteen distinct transmission channels, from the farm gates of Iowa to the bread queues of Cairo, from the urea factories of Chattogram to the diesel exhaust systems of Australian road trains, from the desalination plants of Bahrain to the generic drug factories of Hyderabad, in a cascading architecture of failure that no consensus model has yet mapped in its entirety…”

~ Full article…

“…Perhaps most alarmingly for war planners in Washington, though, were the comments of Belgian prime minister, Bart De Wever. In an interview with local newspaper, L’Echo, De Wever stated that Trump’s Iran attacks will force Europe to come to a quick and independent agreement with Russia, in order to avoid financial ruin amid an impending energy crisis. “We must normalize relations with Russia and regain access to cheap energy. That is common sense,” he said, adding, “In private, European leaders agree with me, but no one dares to say it out loud. We must end the conflict in the interest of Europe, without being naïve towards Putin.”

Thus, even as Trump threatens Europe, stating his administration is watching very closely and noting their actions, European leaders could be moving towards a rupture in the transatlantic alliance…”

~ Full article…

“…Resource-poor Japan was once one of the world’s biggest proponents of nuclear power, which provided roughly 30% of the country’s electricity from 54 reactors.

The Fukushima disaster ​saw public opinion swing dramatically against nuclear, and all reactors were ordered to be shut down for safety inspections and upgrades. In 2012, the government even decided to phase out nuclear energy. That decision was reversed two years later, but ​reactor restarts have been slow and many have been shut permanently.

A PRO-NUCLEAR PM AND GROWING PUBLIC SUPPORT

Now Tokyo’s staunchly pro-nuclear leader Sanae Takaichi, buoyed by a thumping election win, is pushing to accelerate ⁠restarts and advance new nuclear technologies to wean the country off costly imported fossil fuels.

The restart of one of the seven reactors at the world’s biggest nuclear plant, Kashiwazaki-Kariwa, in January was a milestone. That said, only 15 of 33 reactors in Japan that ​remain operable are back online.

Middle East chaos unleashed by U.S. President Donald Trump’s attack on Iran – a region that accounts for 95% of Japan’s oil supplies – and an anticipated surge in energy needs of power-hungry AI data centres promise to bolster a shift in public opinion.

A ​slim majority of people – 51% – are now in favour of the restarts, an Asahi newspaper survey last month found. That’s up from 28% when it began polling on the issue in 2013. The most supportive are young people aged 18 to 29 – at 66%…”

~ Full article…

“…Any potential release from 12 million barrels ​jointly held in Japan by Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates and Kuwait would be in addition to the announced 80 million barrels, ‌the ⁠Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry says.

Japan started its national oil reserve system in 1978, several years after the Arab oil embargo. The Group of Seven nation, reliant on the Middle East for around 90% of its oil, now stockpiles 254 days of consumption.

It will start releasing 15 days’ worth of private-sector oil on Monday and a month’s worth ​from the state reserves from ​late this month, according ⁠to METI…”

~ Full article…

***

WHY JAPAN HAS BEEN HOARDING OIL LIKE A DOOMSDAY PREPPER FOR YEARS

“…Over decades Japan quietly built a national oil stash so massive it can keep the country running for months if imports stop. Government reserves, corporate stockpiles, and joint storage deals with oil exporters, a three-layer backup plan that basically turns the country into a giant emergency fuel tank…”

“…The four-lecture event, which began Sunday, March 15, 2026, and runs through Wednesday, remains closed to the press with its exact venue undisclosed for security and exclusivity reasons. Attendees include figures from academia, technology and religious circles, according to organizers quoted in media reports. Thiel, 58, a co-founder of PayPal and Palantir Technologies, has long expressed fascination with apocalyptic themes, including the Antichrist—a biblical figure described as opposing Christ while posing as a savior—and Armageddon as existential risks facing humanity.

(…)

The lectures come amid heightened scrutiny of Thiel’s broader influence. Palantir, the data analytics firm he co-founded, has secured significant contracts under the current Trump administration, including tools aiding immigration enforcement and deportation efforts. The company’s stock has risen sharply since Trump’s return to office, benefiting from defense and government deals. Critics, including some Democrats, have raised concerns about potential conflicts of interest and the use of Palantir’s surveillance capabilities in domestic policy.

Separately, Thiel’s investment moves have captured Wall Street attention. In recent quarters, his hedge fund, Thiel Macro, sold positions in major AI-linked stocks including Tesla, Microsoft and Apple, totaling around $74 million in one reported divestment. The sales, disclosed in filings, prompted speculation about a bearish stance on certain tech sectors despite his history of backing transformative companies through Founders Fund, which has stakes in SpaceX, Anduril and others…”

~ Full article…

“…The idea is that while using AI in the workplace, workers are experiencing a semblance of mental fog, mental hangover, and similar cognitive maladies. This might give rise to headaches. Their minds are constantly switching among tasks, and they are faced with heightened information overload.

Besides the obviously adverse impacts on the minds of the workers, productivity in the workplace gets knocked down, too. Rather than focusing on getting tasks accomplished, the workers are more apt to concentrate on using AI. They inordinately wrestle with AI. This detracts from solving business problems the workers were meant to tackle.

Notably, mental repercussions vary by the type of person, the type of job tasks, and various other crucial factors. Not all workers who are using AI are equally impacted. One finding was that workers using AI to replace routine or repetitive tasks were much less likely to experience these cognitive consequences.

According to the research stats mentioned in the study, the paper indicated that AI brain fry by business functional areas went like this (rounded percentages): Marketing (26%), HR (19%), Operations (18%), Engineering (18%), Finance/Accounting (17%), IT (16%), Sales (13%), Customer Service (11%), Consultant (10%), Product Management (9%), Leadership/Management (9%), Legal (6%). Thus, marketing had the highest percentage at 26%, while the legal beagles came out at just 6%. You see, sometimes it pays off in unexpected ways to be in the legal field rather than the marketing field (well, maybe)…”

~ Full article…

“…Last week, water became a focal point in the Iran war, as airstrikes hit desalination plants in Iran and Bahrain. Further east, a slower motion water war was playing out — one that is heightening tensions between two nuclear armed powers.

The Shahpur Kandi Dam project was first conceptualized in the late 1970s. In 1982, former Indian Prime Minister Indira Gandhi laid its foundation stone and set a 1988 deadline for the project. But inter-state conflicts between Punjab, Jammu, and Kashmir stalled construction for decades.

(…)

The framework for sharing the water system was established by the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty, which allocates the three eastern rivers to India and the three western rivers to Pakistan, giving India exclusive rights to the Ravi.

But, experts point out, the timing of the dam construction may reflect increasingly strained relationships between New Delhi and Islamabad. Last year, following a terrorist attack that killed 26 people, India charged Pakistan-based militant groups for the massacre and put the Indus Waters Treaty in abeyance.

“There’s a case going on about whether the suspension is meaningful or not,” said Hassaan Khan, an assistant professor in the Department of Urban and Environmental Policy and Planning at Tufts University. “But we’re starting to see that the norm that had been established over 60 years no longer holds.” What happens next is “anybody’s guess,” Khan told RS. “We’re seeing it play out in real time.”…”

~ Full article…

“…Among the most prominent voices warning about private credit risks is JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon. Dimon has repeatedly cautioned that rapid growth in private lending may conceal weaknesses in underwriting standards.

In reference to recent failures among private-credit-backed companies, Dimon remarked that when one problem surfaces in credit markets, “there are usually more cockroaches.”

(…)

Another outspoken critic is hedge fund manager Boaz Weinstein, founder of Saba Capital.

Weinstein has spent much of his career analyzing credit markets and trading credit default swaps. In recent months he has warned that stress in private credit funds may represent the early stages of a broader market correction.

According to Weinstein, recent problems at certain funds—including redemption pressures and liquidity restrictions—could be a signal that “the wheels [are] coming off” the sector…”

~ Full article…