“…Dan Alamariu, the chief geopolitical strategist at Alpine Macro, is warning that if this war with Iran persists we could see “peak war panic” in approximately 1 to 3 weeks…
Alamariu acknowledged there’s a growing chance that the war lasts longer than his two-month outlook, and the Strait of Hormuz would likely remain closed for the duration. That means Brent crude prices will stay above $100 a barrel and possibly even top $150. And yet, the market hasn’t reached maximum panic yet.
“Peak war panic is more likely to hit in the next 1 to 3 weeks,” he predicted. “The longer the conflict lasts, the more investors price in economic damage.”
Using oil prices as a gauge for market panics, crude has historically peaked four to eight weeks into similar conflicts, according to Alamariu. The Iran war has now entered its third week.If the price of oil surpasses $150 a barrel and stays there for an extended period of time, it will cause widespread panic.
I have no doubt about that at all.
What investors would really like to see is an end to the war, but an end to the war is not even on the horizon at this stagε…”