“…Professor Jiang Xueqin (Professor Jiang) is the host of the popular youtube channel “Predictive History” which boasts 1.3 million followers. According to Wikipedia:

“The channel investigates whether a real-world version of psychohistory—the fictional mathematical science of mass human behavior described in Isaac Asimov’s Foundation series—is feasible through the study of recurring historical structures, game theory, and long-term pattern recognition.”

[…]

Professor Jiang Predicts: US WILL LOSE Iran War

And now to the interview with Professor Jiang. Krystal Ball reminded their audience that Jiang made three predictions in 2024:

Trump would be reelected to another term

Trump would attack Iran

America would lose that war

So why does he believe Iran will emerge victorious?

Iran has been preparing for this for 20 years, and they have learned a lot about the American attack threats from the twelve day war last year.

Iran can shut down the Strait of Hormuz, making it much more difficult for the GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council, six Arab states bordering the Persian Gulf: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates) to sell their oil and obtain dollars which they invest heavily in the US Stock market. This waterway is also necessary for these countries to import necessities.

Iran will go after desalination plants in Saudi Arabia which will put that country into a crisis in two weeks.

Iran has a plethora of inexpensive drones which the US will be compelled to defend against with million dollar Patriot missiles. In this asymmetric war of attrition there is little chance that the US will be able to prevail.

In summary, Iran’s strategy is not to achieve a decisive military victory but instead to cause a financial collapse…”

~ Full article…