Global oil demand is expected to peak by 2040, compared with a previous estimate of 2030 made in 2024, due to stronger-than-anticipated resilience in consumption, according to experts from the CNPC Economics and Technology Research Institute at the International Energy Executive Forum 2025 in Beijing on Dec. 11.
The revised outlook projects global oil demand to peak at about 4.83 billion metric tons (97 million b/d) in 2040, rising from 4.54 billion mt in 2025, ETRI Vice President Wu Mouyuan said at the forum. ETRI is the think tank for the Chinese state-owned oil company CNPC.
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Wu said that in a “chasm scenario,” which reflects heightened global divisions, peak oil demand could be postponed even further — to around 2045 — with peak volumes reaching about 5 billion mt.
“Oil demand has demonstrated greater resilience than expected, with emerging economies seeing sustained growth in oil product consumption and stable increases in demand for chemical feedstocks and aviation fuel,” Wu said.
Peak Oil is Real and the Majors Face Challenging Times
The idea that global oil production was nearing its peak, only to plateau and then decline was a common view in the energy world for many years. The geophysicist M. King Hubbert predicted in the 1950’s that US oil production would peak in the 1970’s, a forecast that held true until technology allowed companies to economically extract oil and gas from tight geologic formations like shale. The recent surge in US liquids output – crude plus natural gas liquids (NGLs) – quieted the peak oil community. A well-known, largely peak oil-focused website – The Oil Drum – shut down in 2013, an event some considered the death knell of the peak oil theory. But not so fast says Steven Kopits from energy business analysis firm Douglas-Westwood. Total global oil supply growth since 2005 – 5.8 million barrels per day – came from unconventional sources, shale oil and NGLs in particular, Kopits recently told the audience at Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy. “Not only US, but global, oil supply growth is entirely leveraged to unconventionals right now,” and the legacy, conventional system still peaked in 2005, he said.
Peak oil: Experts differ on when demand will reverse
Oil is making a strong comeback as geopolitical agendas shape energy forecasts worldwide. OPEC, founded in 1960, predicts global oil demand will rise to 122.9 million barrels per day by 2050, while the International Energy Agency (IEA) expects a peak around 2030 followed by a decline. These conflicting projections underscore how energy outlooks have become political, influenced by climate policies and economic priorities. Under President Trump, U.S. energy policy has reversed green initiatives, accelerating drilling in New Mexico and halting offshore wind projects, while global shipping and petrochemical sectors continue to rely heavily on oil. Despite cheaper renewable technologies, rising demand in fast-growing economies like India and persistent oil use in transportation andaviation signal that fossil fuels will remain central to global energy for decades—posing serious challenges for climate goals.